Like everybody who knows me knows, I love numbers. So here is my current snapshot of the Florida results.
Looking at numbers and spreadsheets de-stress me.
Florida is a swing state, I lived there, and registration is closed. This means that I am dealing with a pre-determine number of voters that can’t increase before election date.
Any other states planned?
I might do North Carolina once the one stop voting closes (this Friday).
How did I come up with these numbers?
I am using early voting information from the Early Election Project, 2016 Florida turnout by segments, and CBS/U-Gov daily tracking poll to pull the demographics of people that already voted. I then use these number to determine how many of the registered voters will vote or voted and who they will vote or voted for.
Is it accurate?
Probably not. The underlying data might be wrong. There might be an error in my spreadsheet. My assumption that turnout will be inline with 2016 might also be wrong. That being said the calculation that Biden is winning by 16K votes is in line with other more qualified snapshots.
Will you update this?
Not sure when early voting ends in Florida, but i plan to update it for every day that early voting data is available.