Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina 2020

Posted by

As I stated before, I am not a pollster or anything that would qualify me to make these predictions. I just play one on the internet during the general elections. They are mostly here so that in 4 years, I can remember what I did and find ways to improve my calculations.

In all of them, I use the current registered to vote number (2nd column) and the 2016 turnout (3rd column) to calculate what the 2020 turnout will be (4th column). I then calculate what percentage of this amount has already early voted (5th column). I then use the averages of demographic cross tabs on current polling to determine the final vote. I tried to do a mix of lean Biden and lean Trump polls that had at least a score of C in the 538 polling database.

Florida:

According to the data that I found Republican turn out was 81.20%. I couldn’t find any election year where turnout was this high. I don’t expect them to improve on this number. With almost 80% of that total already in the books, I see a narrow win for Biden.

For the demographic calculations I used

NYT/Siena
StPetePolls
RMGResearch
AtlasIntel
PublicPolicy
FSU/UGov

Pennsylvania:

I am less confident in this one. Fewer people have gone out to vote so anything can happen on election day. That being said, I see Biden winning by a small percentage.

I used the following pollsters for the demographics:

NYT/Siena
AtlasIntel
MC/MorningCall
PublicPolicy
Quinnipiac U
PoliticalIQ

North Carolina:

As with Florida, most of the votes are already in. Unlike Florida, I feel there is still room to improve on the turnout of 2016. I still have Biden winning narrowly.

I used the following pollsters for the demographics:

CNN/SSRS
InsiderAdvantage
MeetingStreet
AtlasIntel
NYT/Siena
Harris Poll

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.