Posted by As I stated before, I am not a pollster or anything that would qualify me to make these predictions. I just play one on the internet during the general elections. They are mostly here so that in 4 years, I can remember what I did and find ways to improve my calculations.
In all of them, I use the current registered to vote number (2nd column) and the 2016 turnout (3rd column) to calculate what the 2020 turnout will be (4th column). I then calculate what percentage of this amount has already early voted (5th column). I then use the averages of demographic cross tabs on current polling to determine the final vote. I tried to do a mix of lean Biden and lean Trump polls that had at least a score of C in the 538 polling database.
Florida:
According to the data that I found Republican turn out was 81.20%. I couldn’t find any election year where turnout was this high. I don’t expect them to improve on this number. With almost 80% of that total already in the books, I see a narrow win for Biden.
For the demographic calculations I used
| NYT/Siena |
| StPetePolls |
| RMGResearch |
| AtlasIntel |
| PublicPolicy |
| FSU/UGov |
Pennsylvania:
I am less confident in this one. Fewer people have gone out to vote so anything can happen on election day. That being said, I see Biden winning by a small percentage.
I used the following pollsters for the demographics:
| NYT/Siena |
| AtlasIntel |
| MC/MorningCall |
| PublicPolicy |
| Quinnipiac U |
| PoliticalIQ |
North Carolina:
As with Florida, most of the votes are already in. Unlike Florida, I feel there is still room to improve on the turnout of 2016. I still have Biden winning narrowly.
I used the following pollsters for the demographics:
| CNN/SSRS |
| InsiderAdvantage |
| MeetingStreet |
| AtlasIntel |
| NYT/Siena |
| Harris Poll |
F5 